News Us politics - read first post before comment

[Rumors]

AND I am assuming that everyone knows inflation is tied to CPI. You have inflation rates where the comparison is drawn between $1 in 1984 vs $1 in 2017 and then you have inflation based on current cost of goods sold which is tied to CPI then it is averaged per year. You may see an uptick here or there for a month or two but the inflation number equals all of the goods sold, traded, stolen, swapped, made, grown that can be calculated and taxed by the government and recorded. Labor and statistics gathers all of that information monthly and publishes it for the world to see and that is how the stock market reacts, mortgage rates go up and down, the dollar gains or looses value, and public perception is changed.
Make sure you click on all the "show tables" they are just FULL of really interesting information... I am an economics geek...

 

[Rumors]

Those are the percent changes and not the prices which can be found on that site here. https://da...[/QUOTE] Infaltion isn...ward swing as you look at yearly percentages.

I am not sure what happened above...sorry. My post said that it isn't about an individual good. Those things swing up and down historically month to month. Cost of household goods as a whole have had low inflation rates on average. May-dec 07 milk cost more than May-dec 17.... it still averages in cost of household foods sold as a whole. There are a lot of components in household food. Those charts will show you more and I stand by my points above and have provided the necessary proof in the form of a government site so it can no longer be "he said, she said"
If you can understand what you are looking at, you will be able to grasp what I am talking about. If not, so be it.

 

[Rumors]

Stop me if I'm wrong, but inflation is still INflation, even if the rate of inflation goes down....

"Inflation" numbers reflects deflation too. The government usage of the term "inflation" is a guideline that represents Consumer price indexes. You will see a decrease in inflation as well as increase. So, in essence no, the term is a catch all phrase and it shows decrease as well and they don't term it as "deflation" or hypoinflation when it decreases.
There are facets of inflation that are good. Like export..we want exported good to cost more because they reflect in a positive GDP. If we are exporting goods for more money we as a nation are making more and paying better. We don't want bread, milk, gas to get more expensive. They usually do at some point... however, we need the farmer who makes said milk to make more so he can pay better and make capital improvements to his business. It is the vicious cycle. Pay in, pay out...make more, spend more...

 

[Deleted member 541]

Personally I don't think people give a rats ass if it's INflation, or DEflation. What people struggle with is the fact that it's getting harder and harder these days to have a roof over their heads, how they will pay for heat and electric, and how in the hell are we going to buy food.

The price of everyday things is just freaking crazy. Everything cost more, the cost of living is rising, and yet the f*cking pay rate sucks. Who in their right mind expects people to live on minimum wage??? The government doesn't give a shit, and now they are willing to cut the legs off of people by taking away the government programs that are helping people stay afloat.

Without these programs, the issues will mount! They certainly won't go away. Without insurance programs, people will flood emergency rooms, putting strains on hospitals and forcing them to add more help, but they will have less revenue due to poor people that can't pay! Insurance rates for those who can pay, will GO UP!!!!!

I foresee thefts going up, drug use going up, murders going up. Desperate times, call for desperate measures. The whole process is f*cked up, and it isn't going to get better... Just my skewed thinking on this subject!!!!!

 

[scout86]

Because of where I live, what I do, and who my neighbors are, I have a pretty good idea what prices are like for the farmers who are producing the milk and hamburger that's on those graphs. Those of you living in town might be interested to know what you're paying and what the farmer is getting paid aren't strikingly related.

A few years ago (after the crash, during the 'recovery') milk priced were high. Dairy farming was fairly profitable. Right now, prices are pretty low on the farm. I can't see that reflected in the price at the store all that much. Beef, at the farm level, was record high a couple of years ago. It's still pretty good, but has declined. I don't buy meat in the store because I can't afford it, but, last time I looked it was still awfully high in the store. The price decreases on the farm don't seem to have been passed along. (I get that there's a lot that goes into those prices besides what gets paid to the farmer, just wanted to point out that price increases aren't evenly distributed along the supply chain.)

We have a rather byzantine way of pricing milk in this country. (It's subsidized based on how far the farm is away from a small town in WI. I'm not kidding. You get paid more for milk produced in CA than for milk produced in the Midwest. Which is at least part of the reason there are huge dairy farms in CA, and area that really isn't cut out for cows, considering limitations on available water and competition with people for living space etc. This pricing scheme has been around a long time. The original idea was to spread dairy production around the country. And, once upon a time, it might have made a little sense.....)

Here's a graph I found easy to read and someone might find useful http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

I was looking for an explanation of how the CPI is calculated and haven't found it. (At least not in a form I could make sense of.) I remember hearing some things about it that struck me as odd. Like it doesn't include things that real people really NEED to spend money on. (?) I also remember hearing something that I believe @Fadeaway referred to awhile back. It had to do with calculating the effect price increases have on people. What I remember is they had built in to their calculator that, if hamburger costs more, people will switch to pork, it that costs too much, the switch to chicken, and so on until we're at the peanut butter and cat food level. I can't remember what this actually was about. I just remember thinking it was an odd way to look at things. (OK "odd" wasn't the word I used at the time.) I wish I could remember more about this. I THINK it was something they were factoring in when trying to decide about cost of living increases for people on social security, but I'm not sure.

And, here's a link to an article about 'real wages' in the US, over time. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/0/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

I'm sure that is calculated in a byzantine way too, but my real life experience suggests it's accurate. It's like Alice in Wonderland. You have to run as fast as you can to stay in one place, faster if you want to get anywhere.

 

[Rumors]

@scout
CPI is everything that you buy that is taxed by the government. Labor and statistics follow and calculate.
Becareful of figuring inflation "rate" vs ordinary inflation. There are different ways to look at inflation. You can look at inflation based on the dollar from 1982 to current and it will tell you what you bought in 1982 for 20.00 would cost 482.00 today. On what? How much? Where? That calculator isn't really a good read. The charts I provided are what the US government posts current inflation rates on. Those are the facts provided to us, the American people, and what we rely on as a working model. Anything else you muster up on the internet cannot be assumed as dependable.

 

[Rumors]

As well, you aren't taking in to account state taxes on food and gas. In certain states food and gas are taxed at a higher rate than other states hence the reason why you feel the squeeze at the grocery store or the gas station.
Where I live, we don't have a state tax but we have a gas tax rate. Our sales tax is the same as everyone's but we have relief bc there isn't that extra state tax on board. Sad but true. I am not sure which state has the highest state tax but I imagine California, New York, and Washington are pretty high. As well, property taxes in certain areas have gone up exponentially for shortfalls in budgets. Those come in at a more local level but certainly make a difference.

 

[scout86]

Anything else you muster up on the internet cannot be assumed as dependable.

I'm not quite ready to assume what the government gives us is dependable either. (And, I had to take a few econ courses in college. HATED it. Can't even begin to tell you how much. I respect anyone who can deal with it, but it was...... awful. I also found, and still find, it amusing that people think it's a science. It is, but a big part of it is really psychology, not math. JMO, obviously.)

As well, you aren't taking in to account state taxes on food and gas.

This is what was messing me up looking at the graphs and remembering the price of gas. (A major expense.) The real price, at the pump, was higher than what was shown in the graphs and this, probably is the reason?

So, since you probably know, what DO they include in the CPI? Is the price of gas included? The price of things like health care? I noticed that they only calculate it for urban areas and I suppose that's a reason what they report doesn't always seem to align with what I see out in the world where I live.

 

[Rumors]

YES! Gas was higher at the pump bc of state tax against the good.
Well, ha! Yes..Lol. There is a methodology in collecting data. There is an entire manual on it. It is pretty complex and designates a lot of variables so not one census is skewed by overpopulation.
I realize you, or me really, WANT to accept the data the government hands us as correct, BUT it is the model in which we build our whole economy. You can assume that it is wrong, but it doesn't get you any further ahead in learning how to make the system work for you, not manipulate it but learn it, and how to navigate it.
As well, what you can't take in to account is that there are end of year deductions you can take on an itemized federal income tax statement. HOWEVER, you still have to pay said mortgage which is outrageous but you can deduct part of it on your federal income tax. Same with insurance premiums, property tax, and tons of other family expenses. I simply hate the tax system bc it doesn't favor the people who can't itemize or are in social security benefits, disability, etc. It is too complex and too hard to navigate.

 

[scout86]

You can assume that it is wrong,

I'm not assuming it's wrong either. I'm just considering that I don't know that it means what it looks, to me, like it means, or that it means what they seem to be saying it means, or anything else. You're right, I'd like to think that it's accurate. But I'd like to think a lot of things that I know, factually, aren't true.

For the record, I'm one of those people who, basically, doesn't make enough money (or spend enough money) to itemize. I get to deduct my business expenses when figuring my income, obviously, but nothing for anything else. Since I'm self employed, I've never understood why I can't give myself insurance as a benefit and deduct THAT as a business expense, like larger businesses can..... (Off topic, I guess.)

So, what would it take to get the folks in politics to quit chucking rocks at each other and actually do some problem identification and solving? Because they're clearly not. I heard 2 guys discussing health care from the Aspen Ideas Festival the other day (thanks to public radio, whose federal funding is proposed to be ended), https://www.aspenideas.org/session/health-and-us-politics
These guys were pretty interesting. I'm guessing (missed the first part) one is a democrat & one a republican. Definitely NOT the same politics. But, they found areas of agreement. They identified similar problems. They agreed on areas that need work. (Neither of them thought slashing Medicaid spending was the way to go.) So.....can we send these guys to Washington? Seriously, we can't count on those idiots in Washington to solve problems. Too many of them don't get that that's why they're there.

AND, going back to my "Hitler" comment earlier, what we seem to have arrived at is a system where people who've learned how to manipulate voters 'win', in many different ways. They win the election. Then they get to Washington and 'win' friends with even bigger checkbooks, who will then pay to them to lobby their former colleagues or what ever.... I should probably not go farther down that road. Anyway, this IS a democracy and we CAN elect whoever we want. If we can get them on the ballot. And if voters can be discerning enough to sort the liars from the people who really want to do a good job running the country, FOR THE PEOPLE. (BTW, in my version of reality, a corporation is NOT a 'person'.)

Anyone want to take on the issue of net neutrality, which is also under attack?

 

[Friday]

This is what was messing me up looking at the graphs and remembering the price of gas. (A major expense.) The real price, at the pump, was higher than what was shown in the graphs and this, probably is the reason?

A piece.

Another piece is that companies are businesses. Meaning that they price things differently in different regions, based on what the majority are willing to pay. Even in different parts of the same city, there's usually some variation. So a very wealthy region is going to be paying through the nose for the same goods a poorer region doesn't, but mathematically? It all evens out. We end up with national averages that in no way reflect your own local pricing.

I've mentioned before that I always look up cop's salaries before I move anywhere, to get a feel for cost of living. As, universally, cops are always just hovering over needing a 2nd job to make ends meet. For a family of one. Add spouses & kids? They need a 2nd income. And their salaries are published, making them easy to look up. My city? 6 months on the job (brand spanking new, has passed their probation period) = 75k per year. 5 years on the job & it's 95k per year. Yup. That's hovering on the verge of being broke in my city. 100k per year is veeeeeery lower middle class, hovering on poor. YMCA childcare (cheapest around) is $1500 per month per kid. Avg 2b/1ba fixer upper house in a not great neighborhood? About half a million. Milk from Walmart? Double the national average. (Although oddly? Milk from Whole Foods is half the national average). There are a few worse places to live in the country as far as cost of living. But we're regularly arm wrestling the other 2 places. That's my mom's hometown.

My dad's hometown? Cops make about 35k per year, not even the mansions cost half a million, and my old monthly food budget would have fed us for a year.

Shrug. Different states. Different regions. Different normals. But the national means & averages? The outliers just add more weight to the middle, and it all comes out a wash.

So a person can look up the stats, and be arguing truthfully XYZ.

AND A person can go to their grocery store, pay their rent, and also argue truthfully ABC.

What's true for the Nation? Isn't always true locally. Just because the damn country is effing huge, with a metric shit ton ;) of diversity.

 

[Rumors]

You can take a deduction of insurance expense. I don't know your accountant nor do I know how you have your business set up but you absolutely can. Anyone can itemize their taxes if they do choose. My comment about social security was just that someone solely on social security files federal income tax on nothing but things still cost the same.
Anyway, certainly this thread has come full circle BUT voting locally is as important and sometimes more important than on a federal level. It's important your governor isn't going to look to raise state income tax for shortfalls instead of balancing his/her budget. Locally, you see property taxes go up which adds up over the years.
It is important to realize that we have seen a disappearance over the last 8-10 years of good paying union work force jobs. Those have been outsourced to other nations bc the cost of goods was cheaper, then imported back in to this country. We have essentially quit making things AND JOBS! Those jobs were essential to this nation and went away with no recourse. You are seeing Trump back out of NAFTA and other trade agreements that Clinton, Bush, and Obama made. This likely will regenerate this nations manufacturing businesses coupled with, OH GOD I CANT BELIEVE I AM GOING TO TYPE THIS, corporate tax breaks...insert shield here bc this is a hot topic... We are essentially one of the highest taxed corporate countries in the world. Whether I like it or not, in order for jobs to stay here and stuff be produced here, we need a tax system that allows corporations to maintain a profit margin acceptable to their shareholder. Ugh...capitalism at its finest. It is this large snowball. One thing effects the other but without one, the snowball doesn't roll.
On to entitlement programs someone brought up earlier. Over the last decade the US Government had made capital investments into our system of living. Part of that complex system I was referring to earlier is this. In order to hold down inflation, the government prints money, starts food programs, pays for educations, pays for health coverage, etc. It helps keep that pesky nuisance of inflation away. However, there comes a time where those entitlement programs start withstanding on Their own so that we can see some inflation hikes so that things cost more so that businesses make more so that they can pay their employees better bonuses. Once again, that is capitalism at its worst/best. I am not denying it gets harder for some people. The hope is that by bringing back jobs here, it will offset the people who need a better paying job but can't find one so they have 2 just to keep up.
Please don't blast me.... my kid was up all night sick and I am tired. Lol.