News Worldwide impact of the novel coronavirus (covid-19)

[scout86]

The White House is saying that the US might be leveling off. They didnt share numbers but that is a good thing to hear if thats true.

The thing to remember about that sort of thing is that these projections are based on models and models have a lot of moving parts. "Leveling off" means that rates of things like "people getting infected" and "people dying", under the present conditions, are leveling off. We're not at a point where we have anything like "herd immunity". Most people in the US still haven't been exposed to this virus, as far as we know. So, if you change the parameters of the model, say by letting things go back to normal, then you're going to have a rapid increase in the rate of people getting exposed to the virus which will be followed by a rapid increase in the rate of people getting sick and the rate of people dying. "Leveling off", at the moment, just means that the social isolation thing is having the desired effect. Change the situation and you'll change the graph.

This is also what you see when you look at those parts of the country that haven't been real effected (yet). Where I live, we have relatively fewer people and they are relatively more spread out. it takes longer for ANYTHING to spread here. So, where the president looks at a map that shows areas where there aren't a lot of people sick, he's looking at a map that shows where a lot of people aren't sick YET. And they won't get sick as fast, because they're not packed together like in New York City. They'll still get sick, and when they do, we have relatively fewer doctors and hospitals to deal with it.

The other thing to consider is that these are ALL "models". That means they're guesstimates based on the best information available about a situation that's fairly uncommon. I wouldn't really expect a high degree of accuracy. Some of these projections might turn out to be pretty accurate when this is over, but they can't ALL be accurate because they don't all agree. They're a guess, that's all.

 

[lostforgottensoul]

"Leveling off" means that rates of things like "people getting infected" and "people dying", under the present conditions, are leveling off. We're not at a point where we have anything like "herd immunity". Most people in the US still haven't been exposed to this virus, as far as we know. So, if you change the parameters of the model, say by letting things go back to normal, then you're going to have a rapid increase in the rate of people getting exposed to the virus which will be followed by a rapid increase in the rate of people getting sick and the rate of people dying. "Leveling off", at the moment, just means that the social isolation thing is having the desired effect. Change the situation and you'll change the graph.

Oh, I understand that. Im not so nieve to think that things can go back to normal. Its just nice if we are at the peak and it may start to go down.

They will need to open things but they will need to do so slowly. Very slowly. If you do it too fast, like you said, it will go up and go up fast and overwhelm the hospitals. We have to do it slowly enough that hospitals can keep up. Keeping the PPE and so forth for medical providers up as the amount of people in need of medical help will increase. We have to decrease those in hospitals right now first so hospitals can be ready for it. But if we get to that point where we open things super slowly and allow hospitals to keep up, then that'd be good.

Normal life is months away. If not more. But we cant go much longer this way either. We have to start loosening things up. But that also has to be done very slowly. Its just nice to hear that we might be close to that point.

 

[blackemerald1]

But I don't think any country in the world, except China?? is near the stage where they can lift restrictions. The experience in the first countries to get this virus is that each time they do, there seems to be a resurgence of infection rate & then admissions to hospitals. And by now I think we know that China has/is fudging their figures.

It's a really vicious cycle with the restrictions.

I know we'd all like the restrictions to be lifted soon and we probably all think we are at the end of our tether with the current restrictions too. But honestly, I cannot see anyone announcing a lift right now. It has only been a few weeks though it feels so much longer.

I think the citizens of Wuhan underwent over 100 days of restrictions & even now there are only partial lifting. Not that I think any country is currently trying to follow their modelling or measures. But still they were in lockdown a lot longer than we have been thus far.

So LFS buckle up there's a fair way to go yet I fear. :cautious:

 

[RVA21]

I think UK is going to be stuck indoors until at least end of June.

 

[DharmaGirl]

I heard covid-19 was planned by trump to root out the "deep state" players

I heard that too! What a bunch of poo poo

I have read stuff about the virus spreading less within humid environments,

I heard it spreads more in humid environments, like WA state in US. We have rain 8 months of the year. We have less numbers here because they don't test. Put your head in the sand. That will work. Might be a bit moist there, though.

 

[Justmehere]

In my state they are planning to lift restrictions on a few weeks. About that time they are also opening massive field hospitals in convention centers that they plan to keep open for a few months.

They know it’s too soon to lift restrictions in terms of at stopping the virus. That is assumed. They are buying time right now to open up things with better prep for the second wave of infections.

The second wave in the Spanish flu was the worst.

The virus will stop when herd immunity is high enough through vaccine or infections.

 

[lostforgottensoul]

I heard it spreads more in humid environments, like WA state in US. We have rain 8 months of the year. We have less numbers here because they don't test. Put your head in the sand. That will work. Might be a bit moist there, though.

Florida is humid all year long. Not sure it's the most humid area in the US but we are surrounded by water and it stays humid all year and we have way less infections then many other less humid states but also not the least or even one of the least. And Florida has many drive through testing sites. 2 in Central Florida alone. We are testing. Moreso then other areas, but yet Florida is still not a high infected area nor a low infected area. We seem to be in the middle somewhere, last I checked anyway.

I doubt humidity plays any role less or more. It may play some role but not so much to effect that much of the infected.

 

[blackemerald1]

The virus will stop when herd immunity is high enough through vaccine or infections.

^maybe but we are yet to learn if any or for how long we acquire immunity after being infected.
^and a vaccine is way off.

 

[The Albatross]

@blackemerald1 - Belated but sincere and deepest condolences (was gonna leave a message on your profile but saw you here).

Indy friend bugged out to my state... and last night was tornado warnings but is fine. Indianapolis numbers are going the wrong way and people are being pretty stupid. Philly friend says the same but is using all precautions though her 80 year old dad isn't really convinced about the restrictions. FWB friend and her family celebrated Passover last night by Zoom.... her med to manage her two orphan/rare genetic diseases is one of the ones that they use for Covid… by luck she got her Rx filled and is good to go for 3 months, but others in her online genetic disease support group haven't been so fortunate and are not able to get their prescriptions filled. Drs and pharmacists are on it trying to get the matter resolved.

Heard that Walgreens here in KY is supposed to be setting up drive through testing and that those people can be referred for antibody testing... those who have the antibodies can register to give plasma and help to treat current cases. On my way home from physical therapy just outside of Lex, I didn't see any activity yet. I will get tested when able as will mister and if either of us test positive we'll do the stuff necessary in order to be able to register to donate plasma. It's a plan at any rate which is better than sittin' at home fretting.

 

[The Albatross]

It's like the thing with people losing their sense of smell or taste. It's been big on the news. Yeah, that happens but it's about 60% of people according to a British study.

Off color but a real issue in the home now between mister and mom... is "The Covid Test", whereby one or the other passes gas and if you can smell it, you "passed the test today". Drives me kinda nuts but it makes them both laugh. I'll tell him that it's a near 60% thing, but I expect they'll both keep it up.

 

[Freida]

The white house says cases are leveling off but they have zero facts to back that up.
Just blah blah blah to try to calm people down.

 

[user27357]

Off color but a real issue in the home now between mister and mom... is "The Covid Test", whereby one or the other passes gas and if you can smell it, you "passed the test today".

And there it is- the lasting effect of coronavirus will be the covid smell test. 20 yrs. from now, in place of "meetings over" or "do you smell something burning?" this will be the thing that guys say to each other after farting on the job.