News Worldwide impact of the novel coronavirus (covid-19)

Freida

Sponsor
, I am seriously thinking of moving to Canada. T
Hubby and I have been talking about retiring to Canada for years. We are both too old and i have to many health issues to qualify for immigration. But we can buy a house and live there for most of the year on tourist visas and traveler health insurance. Plus houses cost about the same there as they do here.

I think the draw for me is simply that Canadians seem to be better people than americans. They are much kinder, they don't have as much of the religious nonsense that we have here, they are more apt to believe in science (like climate change and vaccinating) and their politicians don't appear to be as "purchased" as our are so they can actually get things done. I know it's not perfect obviously, but I don't see the flat out decisiveness and white supremacy there that just keeps getting worse here.

Plus I think we are headed for a civil war whether Trump wins or not and I'm not sticking around for that. I've done my share for this country and paid too high of a price to do it again.
 

Sideways

Sponsor
sorry
whats the alternative?
To herd immunity?

There still seems to be a lot of optimism about vaccinations becoming available at some point next year. So, managing the situation in the meantime, there's multiple options.

Even here within Australia, there's multiple different management approaches being taken. In Victoria, staged controls seem to be aimed at social controls until eradication is achieved. Over the border in NSW, they're more concerned about managing clusters of community outbreaks. At the other end of the continent, Western Australia seems to be doing a cracking job of keeping the virus out of the community completely with hard border closures.

France has just outlined its current approach as the second wave takes off in Europe, which is to manage the virus using social controls, measured against the country's hospital capacity specifically rather than infection rates.

Europe is an interesting one to watch right now, because the second wave is making the initial outbreak look like a walk in the park, and each country is taking its own approach to managing the outbreak, which is appropriate given the vast differences in social makeup and resources available in each country.

So, there's a lot of alternatives to herd immunity:)
 
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joeylittle

Administrator
If anyone wants more non-biased info on herd immunity, this Mayo Clinic article is nice and clear.

Herd immunity is achieved either through vaccine, or through widespread infection. The big mis-conception is that herd immunity and vaccination are two different ideas. They're not.

It'd be nice to see some consensus that herd immunity can result from COVID infection...it's not quite clear (unless I missed it) that a person is immune, once they've had it and recovered.
 

Innordinate

MyPTSD Pro
lot of optimism about vaccinations

eradication is achieved

The big mis-conception is that herd immunity and vaccination are two different ideas. They're not.

It'd be nice to see some consensus that herd immunity can result from COVID infection...it's not quite clear (unless I missed it) that a person is immune, once they've had it and recovered.

joey kinda just said everything I was going to say.

herd immunity with or without a vaccine is the end goal
either go slowly like we are with measures in place or let it rip through and have more deaths- still same end goal

if herd immunity is even a thing because it doesn't seem antibodies stick around too long - 7 weeks or something? not very useful

or i guess if u go on half the population is immune at any given time it will still mean less over all deaths but still yearly death rates same or higher than the flu.

i think really it'll just become another thing we live with. Normal that 60,000 people die a year to this thing etc.

Like nobody blinks that 30,00 die from flu, or pneumonia etc.
(these aren't official numbers im just using them loosely)

Is anyone talking about the over use of antibacterials and the ramp up excessive use covid caused- of everyone over cleaning everything with antibacterial crap causing bacteria to adapt sooner and in 30-40 years that's a shit storm i dont wanna see.
 
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shimmerz

MyPTSD Pro
Is anyone talking about the over use of antibacterials and the ramp up excessive use covid caused- of everyone over cleaning everything with antibacterial crap causing bacteria to adapt sooner and in 30-40 years that's a shit storm i dont wanna see.
Nobody that I know of, but it is something I recognize. I carry an essential oil blend for myself and spray when necessary but try not to overuse. I clean with vinegar mixture with EO's. The antibacterials you speak about eat my skin on my hands....
 

Sideways

Sponsor
Sweden seems to still be getting a good rap in some sections about the benefits of their 'herd immunity' approach.

Certainly, from a utilitarian perspective, or an ultra-liberal "what about my personal freedoms" perspective, the longer-lasting freedoms there's some kind of "Yay Sweden" argument to be had. The economic fallout of the virus hasn't been quite as catastrophic as some of its neighbours, and they got to enjoy the outdoors without pesky masks longer than their neighbours.

For a pro-Sweden perspective, I thought this article highlighted the morality questions as to why Sweden's initial approach may have its supporters. It's clear that if economics and personal freedoms are your priority at all costs, then yeah - Go Sweden!
Yay Herd Immunity...!?

But, personally, with a nan who lives in a nursing home, and both parents over 70, it's hard not to see Sweden's initial approach as being any other than a catastrophic failure to the country's senior citizens in particular. Their second wave was, from a human life perspective, an unnecessary tragedy.

See for example:
Time Mag have no reason to target Sweden...

I thought those 2 articles placed a nice balance between whether Sweden's 'herd immunity' approach was still something to be celebrated.

An individual's moral priorities are very relevant in assessing Sweden's covid performance. Interestingly, Sweden's new approach doesn't seem to completely abandon utilitarianism, or the importance of an individual's liberties, but it does introduce the concept of an individual's responsibility to their community in a somewhat measured way (which doesn't require embracing socialism with complete abandon!). Individual morality being in play means, dang, there are no 'right' answers in managing this pandemic.

Certainly the Swedish don't seem to think their initial approach was such a resounding success since their public health policies (like recommending face masks, introducing contact tracing, and a hugely expanded testing regime) have taken a u-turn, particularly since about September.

As a third wave settles in on Europe, hopefully the (massively) changed public policies in Sweden will prevent a recurrence of the tragically high number of lives lost amongst the elderly and vulnerable in the second wave.
 
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enough

MyPTSD Pro
I think the US lack of adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing guidelines isn't about personal freedoms being infringed or even a lack of leadership on the matter. On a national level you can for sure argue that the examples set by the leadership and the rhetoric about masks being unnecessary, even bad, yes-it is a factor most definitely. On a personal level, as an individual, we see no evidence of what is happening. the virus is invisible, it can be right in front of us but if the carrier is asymptomatic, there's nothing to see. If a person is sick, they disappear. We don't see the dead and dying. Worse, we don't hear the stories about how they got it. There is so much news about it that we get glossy-eyed and check out, it is overwhelming and contradicts itself sometimes in mere minutes. Most of the celebrities and politicos don't know or don't tell about how they got exposed. The examples coming out of the white house rose garden super spreader event are maybe the first examples of an "I felt safe so I did this thing and I was wrong and got COVID" story we are all hearing. That, and the story of all of the healthcare workers contracting it. Got it, don't hug people at the Whitehouse without a mask and don't be a healthcare worker. Good to go.
Without a clear message of " I am just like you and this is what I did wrong" we will make our own judgment calls and they will probably hover around" I don't see anything to be afraid of and I have been behaving this way for 7 months and don't have it" based decision making. If that particular person hasn't been wearing a mask, they won't until something changes their mind.
If I could shout it from the mountain tops so all of my country could hear me I would yell out "Times change, we adapt. If you don't want to. you don't have to wear any clothes or shoes on your feet, but you will get cold and people will think less of you and for the past few thousand years now you may suffer for not adhering to the social norm. Same with masks and social distancing, you don't have to but if you don't, you may get sick, you may spread it to others, people who do wear masks will think less of you and in our collective near future you may suffer for not adhering to the social norm. Just saying people, this is what we should do now, until further notice. Carry on"

I want to hang out on a street corner with a cardboard and crayon sign that reads "will wear a mask for the survival of the species"

carry on
 

ms spock

Sponsor
We thought Australia would be much worse hit. Emails went out to medical people with 8,000 possibly to die in NSW and 10,000 in QLD. Glad we didn't go down the herd immunity path.

At the beginning if herd immunity followed in Australia the Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly calculated between 50,000 deaths to 150,000 deaths from Covid19.

A 20% infection rate: 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die.
If 40% of the population: 10 million infections would mean 100,000 dead.
If 15 million people got the coronavirus then approximately 150,000 would die.

Certainly the Swedish don't seem to think their initial approach was such a resounding success since their public health policies (like recommending face masks, introducing contact tracing, and a hugely expanded testing regime) have taken a u-turn, particularly since about September.

As a third wave settles in on Europe, hopefully the (massively) changed public policies in Sweden will prevent a recurrence of the tragically high number of lives lost amongst the elderly and vulnerable in the second wave.
These changes are interesting. Sweden is intriguing @Sideways. A lot of people did follow the recommendations and socially distance. It would be interesting to know what proportion of the population followed what recommendations and suggested guidelines. Not enough for them to continue with them obviously.

Sweden didn't have enough testing kits available, so their infection rates and their case fatality rates may not be so accurate. The excess mortality rate may be much higher.
This is of course true of many countries we won't know for some time what accurate fatality rates are, and for poorer countries that don't have those records we won't ever really know.

This is an interesting look at it. It looks at how Sweden didn't have enough testing, and how migrant and elderly communities were/were not protected. ABC's Foreign Correspondent called "The Swedish Model".

Sweden's economy has suffered and last I read the surrounding countries are closed to them so SARS-CoV-2 doesn't spread to them. So those deaths didn't stop the economic impact. Sweden had 752 new COVID-19 cases in early October and have allowed bigger sporting groups to meet. A comparison of concern is the same day Victoria recorded 723 cases back in July, the UK recorded 763. Yesterday, Victoria recorded 1 case and 0 deaths, and the UK records 15,650 and 136 deaths. So it will be very interesting to see how Sweden goes. I hope it doesn't go badly.

I have been thinking about the other factors that come into play.

The Swedes are 97 in the list of countries by obesity rate, the US is 12, the UK is 36, so it would be interesting to know if that has an impact on death rates from Covid19. There's a Lancet study that says it does.

If obesity is fuelling Covid-19 deaths in Britain and globally, that the Lancet disease study finds, then there is a lot of rethinking in that arena for all countries. Obesity 'fuelling' Covid-19 deaths in Britain and globally, Lancet disease study finds


Sweden has smaller house holds with much more space, they have a lower population density, so that might be a factor as well? United Kingdom comes in 49 in population density, and the US comes in at 174 overall. Sweden comes in at 193 for population density.

How much it takes off will be something to watch. I thought it was one million cases in 10 days, and not three days as reported here.

 
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