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News Worldwide impact of the novel coronavirus (covid-19)

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I think there are just so many variables and current unknowns and unknowables.

People react differently to threats or perceived threats. Some panic and catastrophize, some bury their heads in the sand, fewer still assess things, realistically, via facts and probabilities.

There are so many factors to assess;

Should we stockpile foods and supplies as much as possible?

Should we consider where we could begin co operative food growing, as a necessary survival plan?

How is the slowing of Chinese production, across the board, going to effect our economy/economies?

Are we in a country that could hyperreact and start forcing people into camps, distressingly, this is being reported from China, and, I think, Italy?

If Chinese production goes down (as it already is) how long before our respective countries pick up the slack and either, begin production or source alternatives from other countries?

Or will we just have to go without?

How far and wide will the virus spread?

So many unknowns and variables, that we cannot, yet, account for.



I hear coconut oil has an amazing anti-viral component in it - glycerol monolaurate. One thing we are doing is stockpiling coconut oil.
 
I wanted to talk to my counselor today about my worry of my meds being hard to get. She kept “challenging” me by asking if that is a realistic concern. Uh. Yeah. My doc who thinks all the panic is stupid actually thinks yes, med shortages are an issue worth concern and to get meds filled in advance. Counselor was very dismissive that I have nothing to be concerned about.

^Sorry to hear your counselor is being such a muppet JMH. What does your counselor know anyway? Nothing that you don't already know and you may find that all of these people who are doing this challenging and 'don't panic' crap are actually making sure their own situations are ok too despite what they may be telling their clients.

I really loathe people who attack the notion of common sense.

There is nothing wrong with being prepared - whatever that means for you and within reason of course.

There may be limits to how many packets of meds you can buy anyway? But buying up to the limit is ok if you're going to use that med in the foreseeable future. Why not?

I think it's perfectly rational to look forward and assess what you may need if you are required to isolate away from this virus for a while.

The virus outbreak may continue to shut down factories, ports and transportation so that's a fact. There is a worldwide shortage of shipping containers right now - empty ones that is - because China isn't filling them up & sending them out - with stuff in them.

All of this wondering if we should be wondering is unnecessary imo. Of course we should be wondering & questioning. The virus is real & it's not contained so looking after oneself takes the responsibility off somebody else doing it. That doesn't mean being selfish or panicking rather it's being sensible.

Go get the meds before they sell out. On the US infectious diseases website it mentions that vulnerable or high risk people should be considering their needs such as this.

My country as invoked travel bans, quarantined lots of people returning from high risk places and commenced prepping for it's nationwide emergency response. I think that's a good thing. At a personal level there are things I can do too - helping out my elderly friends and relatives and making sure I've got stuff I will need.

how long before our respective countries pick up the slack

^That depends on what is needed & the availability of raw materials. Eg face masks for medical staff - Our government has asked the factories that do make it here to ramp up production. Good idea - China are hanging onto their masks and it's obvious why they are.

Or will we just have to go without?

^For lots of stuff? Quite possibly so.

How far and wide will the virus spread?

As the WHO have said repeatedly this virus respects no borders. Once community transmission begins MTW - it's not easily contained.

How is the slowing of Chinese production, across the board, going to effect our economy/economies?

^Have you had a look at the stock exchange in the last week? Biggest & fastest slump since the GFC.

But the good news is that most economists say that whilst stocks & economies are plummeting fast, recovery will be almost as fast if not faster once the virus emergency peaks or the whole thing declines one way or the other.

Are we in a country that could hyperreact and start forcing people into camps, distressingly, this is being reported from China, and, I think, Italy?

^That's not hyper-reacting MTW.

Australia has laws already that have existed for so long I cannot remember that can force a person (s) into quarantine to protect the community. It has to be that way or we'd have no hope of protecting our most vulnerable. And so do other countries.

South Korea has just announced that anyone breaking quarantine there may face a year in prison. Though that surely is shutting the gate after the horse has bolted.

Australia has already imposed quarantine on persons returning from countries where the virus is not contained. You'd know this of course.

Hospitals are gearing up to transfer or defer non essential surgery. Fever clinics are being organised and medical staff are being briefed. Money is being freed up to provide for an emergency response.

Is any of that silly? No... prudent would be a better description.

Australia also uses all of it's quarantine laws and with force if necessary to preserve our agriculture, wildlife & other industries.

In terms of protection. It is easier to force quarantine onto the few who are infected, rather than accommodate the rest of the population away from them. It's purely logistical in.

It's a balance between protecting society against diseases that are transmissible and preserving the privacy and liberty of those that have the disease. It's not an easy balance but the law and its application are rarely easy or popular companions. But the aim is the preservation of life.
 
Australia has laws already that have existed for so long I cannot remember that can force a person (s) into quarantine to protect the community.
And, yeah, we've already forced people into camps for this virus. There has been dozens of people who have now been sent to mining camps near Darwin for quarantine. That was one of the first things we did, way back when we decided to bring Australians in Wuhan province home.

Same deal with the folks that we brought home from the cruise ship in Japan. Sent them off to the mining camp for quarantine for a couple of weeks.

It isn't just China doing the 'send them off to camps' thing!
 
I subscribe to Scientific American magazine, very reputable and reliable. They publish sometimes three articles a day about this. Published yesterday, there is an antiviral that seems to have great promise. I can't attach it here bc unless you have a subscription, it won't come up.
There are 7.7 BILLION people on the planet. There are 86,000 cases of corona and of those 2,500 and some change have died. The peculiar thing is that it doesn't seem to have the devastating effects on children like other viruses have. Its almost like they have an antibody that older adults don't have. In any case, Im not saying to run jump on a plane to China, however I am saying that I wouldn't get in a bunker either. I think having a relatively reasonable amount of food and water supplies for a few weeks would be considered a reasonable thing to do. I think there is validity in practicing caution versus going all out zombie apocalypse.
 
I went to the grocery store today after the first death in the US became news. There were a lot more people than usual. I picked up some salad supplies for dinner. There was no flour, no beans, no sugar, no Lysol, no bleach, no hand sanitizer...

Calm down people!

At least I could get lettuce and kale.
 
IKR. Some stores here are similar. Idk how surrounding Poland & Germany are like, mighta check that out. / Yay roadtrip inspirations.

Seriously, the panics are worse than what's going on. People needing containment from the crazy are worse than people needing containment for the sick.
 
Calm down people!
This is worrying me far more than the virus itself. I don't have a compromised respiratory system, my physical health is pretty good.

But the panic? Worries me. Our state's chief health officer has announced a likely pandemic in our state after someone giving facials was subsequently diagnosed with the virus.

And people are being ridiculous about this. I (accidentally) already stockpiled coffee. Our fresh food, dairy, and meat is nearly 100% Australian, wheat for bread is almost 100% Australian, and there's 0 known reason this virus will interrupt our water supply or electricity supply. Really, for me, it's likely to be a whole lot less disruptive to my life than our annual summer storms.

My nan is high risk, but (people don't seem to be aware), her nursing home routinely puts the entire place into lockdown. Every time there's a viral outbreak - usually it's gastro. It's not a particularly remarkable event. It simply means visiting is restricted till they get the outbreak under control, which they seem to be able to do pretty effectively.

My meds are organised by my pharmacist. They tend to keep a month in advance ready. But there's really nothing I can do about whether or not we run out of those. There's only 1 that will give me serious withdrawals, and at a pinch, I can go to hospital to ride that through.

The point of all that? Is that really, there's no reason for me to panic about our allegedly looming local pandemic.

And yet...individuals can be sensible enough. But crowds? Get hysterical incredibly quickly. And hysteria becomes dangerous really quickly, and can be really unpredictable.
 
And people are being ridiculous about this.

People are currently being ridiculous pretty much everywhere.

In late January/early February, we had a tourist who's (+his wife) subsequently been diagnosed with COVID19. Stayed on two islands, e.g. multiple hotels/resorts.... and so far? Nothing...a handful of people where under self-watching quarantine.

Yesterday someone told me we have to make sure to buy enough of everything and stock up, because they heard the docks in SF were closed, ergo no more shipments of goods for us....

Also seeing the panic reactions in Europe. Can't stop shaking my head. People, smart people, already say it's gonna be a second Spanish Flu.

I really wonder what happened to common sense.
 
My wife is starting to freak out. She's a news junkie, and the way ALL the news networks and agencies are reporting the coronavirus, I believe, is irresponsible.

We're going to Aldi to stock up on a lot of stuff tomorrow. We're not going to be the only ones.
 
@Sideways - The person who has been confirmed infected was not a community transmission infection. She's travelled recently from Iran. Now the authorities are seeking the 40 or so people that she is known to have attended in the beauty salon. I suppose authorities might now be also tracking down the people on the plane that she travelled with & her family etc?

As I wrote this, another traveller, returned from Iran and has been hospitalised & confirmed with the virus.

The government is now seeking out all travellers from Iran to give them guidance about what to do.

Australia has followed the States in declaring a travel ban from and to Iran. Fair enough, it seems they have been a little soft on releasing the correct figures regarding this virus.

South Korea who thus far, has been very prompt with declaring their status, has not received the same travel ban status in our country though they are leading the stats in terms of the most infections outside of China. South Korea is recognised as having a well advanced health care system. Perhaps that's helping them avoid the travel ban.

Our national broadcaster reported a theory as to why the WHO have not declared a pandemic. The report says the WHO is under immense pressure from China to withhold declaring it as such. Apparently the US applied similar pressure in the 80's regarding not declaring the HIV virus as an a pandemic.

I know that the word pandemic has formal implications but whether or not it is used or declared isn't really that important right now because most countries with health systems that can support that kind of response are already doing so.

you get an open disposal face mask as a free gift

^To me, this is just stupidity in action and feeds the growing hysteria. It's a waste of a mask that might otherwise be useful to someone and it contributes to our ever growing world wide problem - rubbish.
 
I went to a local Target today to get ordinary things. No Advil, no Tylenol, no bleach, no paper towels, no flour, no beans, no pasta, no hand sanitizer, no rubbing alcohol, no bleach...

Number of confirmed cases within 300 miles: 0.

What are people going to do when it does hit here? This virus is here to stay and everyone needs to adjust.

This video series below is the best thing I’ve seen out there about the coronavirus. It’s done by a well qualified doctor, science based, calm, informative, very useful, with updates every few days or so on the latest information.

One of the things he reviews is who is getting sick and who is dying. For those who are young with no prior existing conditions, the death rate is below that of the flu. People just get a bad cold. If someone had prior existing conditions or is older, the death rate is as high as 10 percent. It averages to about 2 percent.

He also talks about why you should not go to the hospital if you get sick.


This is also super informative: What Actually Happens If You Get Coronavirus?
 
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