News Worldwide impact of the novel coronavirus (covid-19)

[Sideways]

why don't we just let everyone get back to their livelihood and let Corona run its course?

This is a very all or nothing approach. We aren't in full lockdown here. Lots of people are continuing on with their jobs as usual (all my landscaping mates, for example? Still landscaping. Plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc - still attending to all those comfort things. And when my kettle broke down? I headed to the electrical store as usual to replace it - phew!). That's tightening and loosening the limitations, to control the pace at which the population gets infected. Because...

From that 200,000 who display symptoms - 10,000 will roughly be severe and likely to die.

maths like this starts to fall apart really quickly if the virus spreads too quickly. People that would have survived, don't, because they can't get access to medical care. And people who would ordinarily survive the treatable illnesses and injuries we acquire in the ordinary course of living, also have worst-case outcomes, because medical treatment is no longer available.

In places where the spread of the virus has been controlled, the maths suggesting good outcomes for most of the population hold true.

In places where the virus has flooded the population? The numbers start falling apart really quickly, and you end up with the military getting called in to haul away the bodies (eg Iran, Italy, Spain...).

So, JMHO, but the flexible, loosen/tighten approach to social controls is a good idea. Best option of a range of shit options. We're a long way from total lockdown here. And our curve is starting to do exactly what we want it to do. So that we don't have people dying en masse like we're seeing in some places, but we're also not having our front door welded shut for the next 3 months like in slme places.

We're existing in the big grey, flexible area between the 2 extremes. It doesn't need to be a black and white, total lockdown or let it fly approach.

 

[Mee]

I don't understand your post @Mee I haven't seen mind reading here, so I can only assume you mean me, and I've also not been mind reading. I think theatre masks only being useful until they're wet from breath is actually useful info for people. I'm not judging or mind reading people's reasons for using them. I'm just pointing out it's inconsistent with advice. So people are unaware they're at risk when they wear one and still at risk of infecting others.

Not judgement. Just info. I'm way, way less subtle when I'm judging.

nope. None of this.

However I said I wasn’t planning to start a row over it or single people out and I would appreciate that being respected.

 

[Chris-duck]

I wasn't arguing but okay ?

 

[ms spock]

It’s a wild ride.

I put myself into lockdown since February after exposure to a sick person from a hot spot. Up until last week folks are arriving via by plane with no testing, temperature taking, advice, mandatory quarantine, nada. I have been sick about 5 days after I was exposed to that idiot, and have the cough, fevers, sore throat, so not transmitting anything to B has been a priority. It comes and goes. Not seriously though I less able to think things through and feel poorly. I am going to ring Queensland Health and let them know that nothing was followed up today.

B's only left 2-3 times since I went into lockdown. He wore gloves and a mask, but we are not infection control specialists so the next time he goes out it will be the last time for 6 months. We will make do with what we have. We have plans for up to 18 months of self isolating now. It's been so badly bungled in Australia and we have nowhere enough tests it's time to be brutally honest and hunker down.

We have been as meticulous as we can be but it's a risk to vulnerable people. Anyone vulnerable has to be protected. And I will do the most ethical and moral thing that I can do. I don't care what the incompetent leaders are doing. I have read the Science, WHO, talked to my Scientist friends, Science Teachers and what nurses and doctors write, say & theorise and say about what is happening on the frontline. If the only thing I do is not spread to other folks, then that is my duty as a citizen to do that.

I have organised a lot for other folks from home. No contact and no exposure. I have educated where government education campaigns should have been in place. Our Prime Minister was briefed last year in November. Everyone could have had a free Flu shot. We could have got the proper PPEs. So much stuff. Anyway I can't fix that but I can make sure that I do best practise in every situation I am. I disinfect the letterbox and gate each day. I stay away or wear a mask & gloves if something is delivered to our place. I also thank the people and publicise that they are still open for now.

I am trying to hire local people who have all lost their income. If I get a few pupils who can even pay a few dollars then I can try and help out that way. I did the right thing by not going back into the schools.

I am doing really well managing multiple levels of complex issues at this time. But I am sick on and off and my right hip and left knee are a real challenge. Now my wasp reactions are getting bigger and more serious with each bite I have to make sure that I don't get bitten because I don't want to take up space in the hospital and also I don't want to die. So we found some wasp nests inside the house yesterday so I am starting to clean everything in the house with my bee suit so I look like a space astronaut. Sometimes I move slowly like I am in Space. The neighbours are amused that their eccentric neighbours are being eccentric. Later I will post an image to me in said Bee Suit with a mask on for privacy purposes.

I have done everything that I can to do the best for everyone in the communities that I belonged to.

 

[siniang]

Do we let it run its course and stop all lockdowns, or is this really worth it?

We desperately need antibody tests and the first countries are actually planning on larger scale trials really soon. This would help ease restrictions and would also help the economy.

Because I think everybody agrees, we can't put the entire World on pause for months and months.

"Fortunately", there's more ways to get a good handle of this thing than vaccines and medication, though obviously we also need THOSE, but as you pointed out, those could be anywhere from 8 to 12+ months away.

Germany could issue thousands of people coronavirus 'immunity certificates' so they can leave the lockdown early

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Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do?

Also, I keep repeating this, but THIS is also really really important to keep in mind:

Iceland lab testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic - CNN

We probably have a HUGE amount of asymptomatic cases. Which really complicates things - but it's also a big fat silver lining.

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I know a LOT of people who think they've already had it; heck, I'm still not convinced <I> haven't already had it. It would be really nice to know, though...

 

[Chris-duck]

Are people immune once they've had it? I've seen conflicting advice on that, some sources say aye n some say nay. But honestly I CBA researching real hard so I'll just ask here.. what's #thescience say?

 

[siniang]

Are people immune once they've had it? I've seen conflicting advice on that, some sources say aye n some say nay. But honestly I CBA researching real hard so I'll just ask here.. what's #thescience say?

The science is inconclusive. At least short-term immunity is accepted as a given, anything beyond that? We simply don't know because it's so new. I know there have been reports of "recovered" cases in Japan and China testing positive again, but there's also many many question marks regarding those ...like....possible false negatives to be considered "recovered"? False positives? A gazillion other reasons?

Can you catch the coronavirus twice? You'll probably be immune — for some time, at least

Can You Become Immune to Coronavirus? | Science | Smithsonian Magazine

Scientists don’t yet have definitive answers about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. For now, people who have had the disease appear unlikely to get it again, at least within the bounds of the current outbreak. Small, early studies in animals suggest immune molecules may stick around for weeks (at least) after an initial exposure. Because researchers have only known about the virus for a few months, however, they can’t yet confidently forecast how long immune defenses against SARS-CoV-2 will last.

 

[Chris-duck]

Thanks @siniang

 

[lostforgottensoul]

Florida is now under a State Wide stay at home order per Goveronor Destantis. Before this, counties were doing the orders.

Seminole County still has a social distancing order. That is just for that county. As far as I know. Other counties have other orders though.

This is rather a late move, IMO. If they were going to do a Statewide stay at home order, they should of do it sooner.

They also have drive through tests sites. One at the Orange County Convention Center. They finally can test anyone with a fever. Florida National Guard are there to help navigate traffic. They are pop up tent areas. Its really cool. They've been there for a week or so but the standards of who they can and can't test is lessening and that allows for more to he tested.

ETA: The Florida Unemployment site has crashed. Reminds of like ObamaCare site issues. Too many applying at the same time. The governor knows about it but not giving answers on how and when that will be fixed.

 

[ms spock]

This is a sobering read but well worth it.

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

 

[Chris-duck]

This is a sobering read but well worth it.

I think it might have been written before the UK went into lockdown though? I couldn't see a date, but it seemed to be advising we do what we've done. We're a bit slow, but we got there :laugh:

 

[anthony]

I'm wishing there were more in the media on this.

I have only caught a few so far, which are so fast to appear then disappear in my Apple news... one was a teenager who couldn't handle how her world had fallen apart so fast with this virus, and killed herself as a result. WTF?

maths like this starts to fall apart really quickly if the virus spreads too quickly.

That was based on doing nothing, so let the virus spread and work on the worst case based on their current figures that not everyone will get it, and they believe around 80% will have no / limited symptoms that they would not clearly identify / know that they have / had the virus. Which leads into:

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Also, I keep repeating this, but THIS is also really really important to keep in mind:

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We probably have a HUGE amount of asymptomatic cases. Which really complicates things - but it's also a big fat silver lining.

This is a massive point IMHO. Australian experts believe around 80% of people will not know they have it (asymptomatic), will endure minor symptoms that will not clearly tell them they have it / may have a natural immunity to it. Right now, Australia is still not testing anyone who thinks they have it.

Our friend, a pharmacist, she got randomly ill, but did not have every symptom that meets the theoretical checklist. They refused to test her. So she has been at work, as a pharmacist, doing her job, just feeling a bit unwell, yet functional to do her job.

Her co-worker who had contact with a diagnosed patient, didn't know until after the fact, is now diagnosed with it and in isolation. Only now will they test her, and now in isolation.

How many have the two infected as pharmacists, serving the public and vulnerable who seek their help, all because they refused to test her when she had some symptoms and felt unwell?

This is the stupidity. Some countries have shifted to testing everyone. Solid approach IMHO.

I get it, there are so many tests to go around, BUT, if a person has symptoms, they should be tested, regardless of meeting the entire checklist. Everyone is unique, we don't all suffer / feel things the same.

Nicolette and I talk about it, and I say the same thing to her - how do you know that either one of us, both of us, haven't already had it or aren't currently infected with it (asymptomatic)? We could be spreading it around and not even know it. So we both still go to the shops, the essential stuff, she is still working, and both of us could be spreading it.

I think local suburban testing tents should be setup and people allowed to come for testing.