Research Help Me With My Math

[Justmehere]

An estimated 26.5 percent of Americans 18 and older suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year. (Source: National Institutes for Health)

This means that 73.5% of Americans do NOT have a mental illness.

3-5% of violent crimes in America are perpetrated by people with mental illness. Less than 5% of all shootings in the US are perpetrated by someone with a mental illness – (sources: studies done in 2013 and reported on by mentalhealth.gov and Journal of Epidemiology)

There are 321,729,000 Americans. (Source: US Census)

In 2013, an estimated 1,163,146 violent crimes occurred nationwide in the US. (Source: FBI.gov)

73.5% of the population is 236,470,815. That is the number of people who are not mentally ill. That population committed 95% or greater of all violent crimes, or 1,104,988.7 violent crimes.

Very roughly, that means that 1 violent crime perpetrated per 300 people who do not have a mental illness.

26.5% of the population is 85,258,185. That’s the number of people with a mental illness in the country. 5% of violent crimes is 58,513 violent crimes. That’s roughly 1 violent crime perpetrated per 1,600 people diagnosed with a mental illness? Is that right?

Wait. That can't be right. Where is my math wrong?

I know that the data from these studies could be skewed in a million ways and that other studies might show different information. However, based on this information, where is my math wrong? I keep thinking I could be off on my math. I have to be. I'm tired, sleep deprived, and I must be doing the math wrong...

Based on these numbers, it appears that people without a mental illness appear to be significantly more violent than people with a mental illness. 5 times less likely.

 

[EricaLynn]

I think your math is pretty spot on.

That being said, I am terrible with math most days. :(

 

[Lucycat]

To put it bluntly' your maths demonstrates ( and I am not of a mind to check your calculations)

Far more non- mentally ill people commit crime than mentally ill people. ( we are talking diagnosed here so that may skew the stats a little)

I am not surprised at all. It is just that the mental illness label is good for the media headlines. I have never seen it written that X was murdered by Y who had a cold/arthritis/infection/peritonitis/coeliac disease. But if it is a mental illness it will be written in full - PTSD, schizophrenia, paranoia or whatever. People like to be able to blame the illness and stereotype/stigmatise the criminal.

 

[joeylittle]

An estimated 26.5 percent of Americans 18 and older suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year. (Source: National Institutes for Health)

This means that 73.5% of Americans do NOT have a mental illness.

You might have an error right here, depending on how the NIH gathered that data.

For example: if it was gathered through insurance claim reports and other financials, that number might be actually low - because it is not accounting for the people who may have a diagnosable disorder, but have been unable to access diagnostic services.

Statistics are rarely reversable; or, if you want to reverse them, you need to do it exactly - so it's est. 26.5% US 18-up have a diagnosable mental disorder. Therefore, est. 73.5% US 18-up do not have a diagnosable mental disorder. Doesn't mean they don't have mental illness (If that makes sense)

So, a lot in your calculation depends on that extrapolation - the 73.5%. I suspect that number is off, if it is only based on people who have been given a diagnostic code through insurance or private care.