I don't get why people don't remember that.
When the virus hit as a big thing in China in early January, the initial estimates for producing and distributing a vaccine were 12-18 months minimum.
They do seem to be fairly confident with the vaccine they've currently started testing (some health workers in Victoria here are going to be guinnea pigs).
Ordinarily, the mass production of vaccines doesn't start until after extensive testing has been completed and the vaccine is determined to be both
safe and
effective.
Here in Australia, the rules have been waived, so that large scale production can commence straight away, so that it's ready to roll out as soon as adequate testing has been completed. That can knock about 6 months off the usual time it takes for a new vaccine to become publicly available.
And that testing stage, while frustrating, is still important. Medications of any kind can have some unforeseen consequences (thalydamide spellcheck is a good example), which we need to avoid, particularly given how many people, with vulnerable health situations, will ultimately be looking to get the vaccine.
So, estimates are still that early 2021 is still looking like the earliest that a vaccine can be rolled out en masse. Although it may be that frontline health workers get earlier access to the first vaccines produced.
That's excellent news. But, it's still 8-9 months away at least. We need to keep infection rates down as low as possible in the meantime. There's a lot of places (not just in the third world) where ICU beds are stretched at the best of times. I'm fortunate to live in an area with reasonably good hospital services available, but a few years back when I needed to go into ICU and be ventilated (waaaay before Covid 19), there were no ICU beds available at the 3 nearest hospitals, and I was sent quite a long way out to get a bed. People are still getting sick for other reasons, and even with the expansion of hospital beds to handle the epidemic, resources will be over-stretched for the remainder of the year. New York is currently experimenting with one ventilator per 2 patients, because we're already out.
So, the vaccine being available in the foreseeable future is definitely a reason to be optimistic. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Unfortunately, we still have to get through the tunnel. And a lot of people are losing their lives in the process, and many others are getting permanent lung damage even when they do recover.
The situation is vastly different to the Spanish flu. I don't think comparisons to that pandemic offer too much insight into what's coming. But many people have already lost their lives, and many more will over the course of the year while we wait for the vaccine to become available.
It's pretty heartbreaking to read about the situation on the ground in New York city right now. Reading about the situation on the ground in places where their hospital system operates in a permanent state of crisis all year round, like Indonesia, for example - that's altogether another thing.
Bring on the vaccine, if it's safe and effective. But definitely we're still a long way from when we can become complacent about Covid. 2020 is going to be a devastating year globally.
