@Justmehere
Thanks for the link to the CNBC piece.
There are some interesting falsehoods in the piece, regarding the entirely paper US dollar, debt and the business cycles. That comes back to the point about it generally being Republican administrations which increase the level of debt - because the previous administration had let rip with low interest rates and inflated an un sustainable economic bubble, which had duly popped.
edit; and of course the republicans tend to have far bigger military spending too.
The lamestream schools of economics are extremely weak in the area of monetary theory. I'd argue that the various neo and post keynesians are weak all around on economics.
The MMT (modern monetary theorists) might be ok as foreign exchange speculators, but they're wholly fallacious on understanding what's going on.
The Chicago school moneterists are so so, they get a little bit of the picture.
For decent monetary theory, the Austrian school is really the only show in town. Their business cycle theory flows from that understanding of monetary theory.
In practical terms, Ludwig von Mises (father of Austrian School monetary theory) was pretty much singlehandedly responsible for halting the Austrian hyper inflation in the early 1930s.
Ideas are the things that change the world
I can highly recommend any of the introductions to Austrian school economics by people like Hoppe, Hulsmann, Salerno, Rothbard - of course, Murphy, Block...
__________________________________________
ok, what were the holes in the article;
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/06/donald-trump-on-us-debt.html
Right now, people and companies all around the world treat US government bonds as the least risky financial asset in the universe. If the government defaults and banks fail as a result, the government needs to clean up the mess. And if risk-free federal bonds turn out to be risky, then every other financial assetbecomes riskier. The interest rate charged on state and local government debt, on corporate debt, and on home loans will spike. Savings will evaporate, and liquidity will vanish as everyone tries to hold on to their cash until they can figure out what's going on.
Bold Added
The assumed lack of risk is based on the assumption that the us .gov can print the money or type the digits into a computer, and that they will be acceptable on the market in exchange for a a simillar ammount of goods as they were the day before.
un backed paper money (which is what the us dollar is) is more of a con than magic beans could ever be. Beans, whether magic or not, have an underlying value - you can eat them or plant them - paper money isn't even good for lighting the fire or wiping your arse with.
us .gov bonds are promises to paper dollars in the future and pay interest in paper dollars.
On an un hampered market, money arises out of the most readily accepted good on that market. If i want new shoes and all that I have to exchange for them is a dairy cow, and the cobbler doesn't want a dairy cow - I have a problem.
But If I find that the cobbler would accept some silver, and I can exchange the cow with someone who does want the cow - for silver. I czn then use some of that silver to pay the cobbler for the new shoes.
It doesn't take much from that to realise that i can accept and hold silver for exchanging with, even if i have no other use for silver.
Prior to FDR's confiscating American's private holdings of gold, dollars exchanged for gold at a fixed rate (iirc $24/oz - gold is currently at around $1300 / oz)
Nixon officially broke the link between dollars and gold in 1971, however Linden Johnson had ceased allowing central banks to redeem paper dollars for gold in the late 1960s - as more paper dollars had been printed than there was gold to exchange for them at the official rate of $32/oz, and the French government's demand to redeem paper dollars which came into its possession would have revealed that over printing,
So since 1971 - instead of a commodity like gold or silver being used as a money, we've had paper which can be printed at will and digits which can be entered into a computer
it is only because of the post WWii Bretton Woods agreement (which tricky Dicky reneged on in 1971) that there is significant overseas demand for dollars - so large scale printing of paper dollars has
only seen their value against gold change from $32/oz to $1300/oz (if gold were to again be accepted as money - the exchange rate with paper dollars would approach infinity)
as soon as there is a decline in the demand overseas to hold otherwise worthless paper dollars and bonds that are promises to paper dollars in the future, the purchasing power of the dollar will collapse
Faith in those bonds is a confidence game - as soon as confidence goes, they're just pieces of paper (incidentally the "assets" in government run pension schemes are usually government bonds).
The line - all other
financial assets will become riskier is true only if they're based on paper dollars and dollar denominated bonds
holdings of things like gold and silver (or lead and brass) will retain or even increase their exchange value.
On an un hampered market - the interest rate is a market price, arrived at by the interactions between savers and borrowers
It's actually a very important price, because it is a guide to whether society as a whole wants to consume now, or save to be able to consume more later.
Printing of paper money, and the further expansion of claims to that money by fractional reserve banking, artificially lowers the interest rate below where the market participants would have reached agreements with each other.
that results in both more borrowing than the market would have had, and also less saving
those two are incompatible and that is one of the factors that leads to periodic crashes - as people's preferences re-assert themselves over the preferences of the central bankers and politicians
the crash is caused by the bad investment choices made under artificially low interest rates - so it will come - and it is better that the crash comes sooner rather than later, when it has had time to become bigger.
The "illiquidity" is caused by the banks only having fractional reserves
basically fractional reserving is a fraud - there are probably less than 10c of coins and bank notes in american banks for every $100 that appears on people's bank statements.
_____________________________________________
There is very serious shit here, and it will happen sooner or later
whichever politician is at the top when it does happen - will likely get blamed - but the coming crisis has been in the making for a very long time.
People like David Stockman and Paul Volker have expressed dismay that they patched the broken system up and allowed it to continue to the present day, rather than let it crash and destroy itself at the end of the 1970s.